ABSTRACT
In the coronavirus efficacy (COVE) phase 3 efficacy trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, IgG binding antibody (bAb) concentration against Spike (BA.1 strain) and neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer against Spike (BA.1 strain) pseudovirus were assessed as correlates of risk of Omicron COVID-19 and as correlates of relative boost efficacy in per-protocol recipients of a third (booster) dose. Markers were measured on the day of the boost (BD1) and 28 days later (BD29). For SARS-CoV-2 naive individuals, BD29 Spike IgG-BA.1 strain bAbs and BD29 BA.1-strain nAbs inversely correlated with Omicron COVID-19: hazard ratio (HR) per 10-fold marker increase [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.16 (0.03, 0.79); P=0.024 and 0.31 (0.10, 0.96); P = 0.042, respectively. These markers also inversely correlated with Omicron COVID-19 in non-naive individuals: HR = 0.15 (0.04, 0.63); P = 0.009 and 0.28 (0.07, 1.08); P = 0.06, trend. Fold-rise in markers from BD1 to BD29 had similarly strong inverse correlations. For SARS-CoV-2 naive individuals, overall booster relative (three-dose vs two-dose) efficacy was 46% (95% CI: 20%, 64%) and correlated with BA.1 strain nAb titer at exposure. At 56, 251, and 891 arbitrary units (AU)/ml (10th, 50th, and 90th percentile), the booster relative efficacies were -8% (95% CI: -126%, 48%), 50% (25%, 67%), and 74% (49%, 87%), respectively. Similar relationships were observed for Spike IgG-BA.1 strain bAbs and for the markers measured at BD29. The performance of bAb and nAb markers as correlates of protection against Omicron COVID-19 supports their continued use as surrogate endpoints for mRNA vaccination against Omicron COVID-19.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
BackgroundIn the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial, estimated mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) was 94%. SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements were assessed as correlates of COVID-19 risk and as correlates of protection. MethodsThrough case-cohort sampling, participants were selected for measurement of four serum antibody markers at Day 1 (first dose), Day 29 (second dose), and Day 57: IgG binding antibodies (bAbs) to Spike, bAbs to Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), and 50% and 80% inhibitory dilution pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers calibrated to the WHO International Standard (cID50 and cID80). Participants with no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Cox regression assessed in vaccine recipients the association of each Day 29 or 57 serologic marker with COVID-19 through 126 or 100 days of follow-up, respectively, adjusting for risk factors. ResultsDay 57 Spike IgG, RBD IgG, cID50, and cID80 neutralization levels were each inversely correlated with risk of COVID-19: hazard ratios 0.66 (95% CI 0.50, 0.88; p=0.005); 0.57 (0.40, 0.82; p=0.002); 0.42 (0.27, 0.65; p<0.001); 0.35 (0.20, 0.61; p<0.001) per 10-fold increase in marker level, respectively, multiplicity adjusted P-values 0.003-0.010. Results were similar for Day 29 markers (multiplicity adjusted P-values <0.001-0.003). For vaccine recipients with Day 57 reciprocal cID50 neutralization titers that were undetectable (<2.42), 100, or 1000, respectively, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through 100 days post Day 57 was 0.030 (0.010, 0.093), 0.0056 (0.0039, 0.0080), and 0.0023 (0.0013, 0.0036). For vaccine recipients at these titer levels, respectively, vaccine efficacy was 50.8% (-51.2, 83.0%), 90.7% (86.7, 93.6%), and 96.1% (94.0, 97.8%). Causal mediation analysis estimated that the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated through Day 29 cID50 titer was 68.5% (58.5, 78.4%). ConclusionsBinding and neutralizing antibodies correlated with COVID-19 risk and vaccine efficacy and likely have utility in predicting mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against COVID-19. Trial registration numberCOVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427